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“IT’S STILL THE SAME OLD STORY/ A FIGHT FOR LOVE AND GLORY…”




 


Image result for casablanca movie plane
 

The 2016 Presidential campaign for the Casablanca began at the end of WWII. At this juncture it is uncertain who gets on the plane. The letters of transit signed by de Gualle are the 2008 crash. The airport scene foreshadows our very own current history movie.

All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players; They have their exits and their entrances

In their book The Fourth Turning, authors Howe and Strauss identified four generational archetypes: Hero, Artist, Prophet, and Nomad. Each consists of people born in a roughly 20-year period. As each archetypal generation reaches the end of its 80-year lifespan, the cycle repeats.

Each archetypal generation goes through the normal phases of life: childhood, young adulthood, mature adulthood, and old age. Each tends to dominate society during middle age (40–60 years old) then begins dying off as the next generation takes the helm.

This change of control from one generation to the next is called a "turning” in the Strauss/Howe scheme. The cycle repeats on a "fourth turning” as a new hero generation comes of age and replaces the nomads. Each fourth turning, however, is a great crisis.

Birth Year Archetype Generational Name
1901-1924 Hero G.I.
1925-1942 Artist Silent
1943-1960 Prophet Baby Boomer
1961-1981 Nomad Generation X
1982-2004 Hero Millennial
2005-2029? Artist Homeland
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JFK yesterday's Heroes the G.I. generation born between 1901-1924
This is an era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if those outside the majoritarian center feel stifled by the conformity. America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of John Kennedy 5/29/1917 in 1963, a key life cycle marker for today’s older Americans. 
Image result for bernie sanders Image result for casablanca movie plane
Bernie Sanders 8 Sep '41 represented the Artist archetype (mentor, intuition, love) in this year's election.
The Second Turning is an Awakening. Coming of age during the stage-time of the Hero was the Artist archetype Silent Generation (born 1925 to 1942). Known for their caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults embodied the ethos of the G.I. generation. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and slipped quietly into America’s gleaming new suburbs.
 
Image result for bill hillary clintonImage result for casablanca movie plane
Bill 19 Aug '46 and Hillary 26 Oct '47 represent the Baby Boomer generation 1946-1960
The Third Turning is an Unraveling.  The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of the First Turning. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs follow Crises, which teach the lesson that society must coalesce and build. Unravelings follow Awakenings, which teach the lesson that society must atomize and enjoy. America’s most recent Unraveling was the Long Boom and Culture Wars, beginning in the early 1980s and probably ending in 2008. The era opened with triumphant "Morning in America” individualism and drifted toward a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, an edgy popular culture, and the splitting of national consensus into competing "values” camps. 
 
michelle-n-obama-main-19114  Image result for casablanca movie plane
Michelle 17 Jan '64 and Obama 4 Aug '61 are Generation X 1961-1981 representatives of the NOMAD archetype (warrior, hunter, judging, innovative, fortitude, cold, the winter of discontent).
The Fourth Turning is a Crisis.  This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new "founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity.
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Mark Zuckerberg 14 May '84 and wife Priscilla Chan 24 Feb '85 the Millennials 1984-2004 represent are new Heroes (king, headman, reason, theoretical, Spring the season of  hope.) the Abe and Mary Todd Lincoln of the 21st century.
Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence. 
 
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"Louis, I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship."





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